Framing The Probability Space

From Sparks to Stars: Grasping the Scale of Power and Probability in a Single Frame

Holding the probability space helps us grasp complexity space. We can calibrate everyday experiences to coexist with cosmic events to comprehend vast differences in scale — whether of energy or odds. Power, measured in watts, ranges from milliwatt Bluetooth earbuds to gigawatt power plants fueling entire cities. Meanwhile, probabilities stretch from the minuscule chance of being hit by a meteorite to the near certainty of facing cancer in a lifetime.

Visualizing these extremes side-by-side, especially on logarithmic scales, offers a mental tool: it compresses the unimaginable into a frame the human mind can grasp. Suddenly, the 0.0000000033 chance of winning the lottery and the 1,000,000-watt output of a wind turbine are no longer abstract — they’re contextually real, comparable, and meaningful.

By mapping the unseen scales that shape our lives — both risks and resources — we become better equipped to make sense of reality, plan wisely, and act with informed humility.

In Scale of Power

The watt (W) is a unit of power in the International System of Units (SI), and it measures the rate at which energy is used or produced. One watt equals one…